Grantham and Stamford: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Grantham and Stamford: Overview

Projection: CON seat

Implied MP at 2017:Nick Boles  (CON)
County/Area:Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:80,979
Turnout:69.2%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
CON34,62561.8%
LAB14,94626.7%
LIB3,1095.5%
UKIP1,7523.1%
MIN8501.5%
Green7811.4%
OTH30.0%
CON Majority19,67935.1%

See overview of other seats in East Midlands.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Grantham and Stamford been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Grantham and Stamford: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Grantham and Stamford

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Grantham and Stamford

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Grantham and Stamford, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Grantham and StamfordTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South KestevenAveland1,994Grantham and Stamford1,0382783520801001,389
South KestevenBelmont3,392Grantham and Stamford1,613730118472301502,546
South KestevenBelvoir1,257Sleaford63315225126090837
South KestevenBourne Austerby4,430Grantham and Stamford1,961542139502604202,760
South KestevenBourne East3,415Grantham and Stamford1,441538111821901802,209
South KestevenBourne West3,987Grantham and Stamford1,8336391771202606502,860
South KestevenCasewick4,059Grantham and Stamford2,087439106432005702,752
South KestevenCastle1,913Grantham and Stamford8962755142100901,283
South KestevenDole Wood1,938Grantham and Stamford98222459211103401,331
South KestevenGlen1,847Grantham and Stamford99420950441001401,321
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield3,186Grantham and Stamford1,394534129882003502,200
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate3,807Grantham and Stamford1,5207481611157605502,675
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield3,393Grantham and Stamford1,3141,7241401293004303,380
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby3,534Grantham and Stamford1,3411,086134542504602,686
South KestevenGrantham Springfield3,247Grantham and Stamford1,299844115976601902,440
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's4,560Grantham and Stamford1,9401,41420815610708303,908
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's3,700Grantham and Stamford1,5988311411023002202,724
South KestevenIsaac Newton3,672Grantham and Stamford1,82448994901801902,534
South KestevenLincrest1,942Grantham and Stamford9902893719901201,356
South KestevenMorton1,890Grantham and Stamford9252595625902901,303
South KestevenStamford All Saints3,825Grantham and Stamford1,6236661551132606302,646
South KestevenStamford St George's3,744Grantham and Stamford1,167646142896603902,149
South KestevenStamford St John's3,786Grantham and Stamford1,8845471581102504702,771
South KestevenStamford St Mary's3,488Grantham and Stamford1,8006464375110606603,106
South KestevenToller2,002Grantham and Stamford99324814225100801,426
 Total78,008 35,09014,9973,1201,7447820859056,592

The full details of these calculations are given on the Grantham and Stamford seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Sleaford and North Hykeham

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Sleaford and North HykehamTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North KestevenAshby de la Launde and Cranwell3,893Sleaford2,39270990603200373,320
North KestevenBassingham and Brant Broughton3,884Sleaford1,897598961643700352,827
North KestevenBillinghay, Martin and North Kyme4,009Sleaford1,713975104704000432,945
North KestevenBranston3,889Sleaford1,878757131674700422,922
North KestevenCliff Villages4,215Sleaford2,037814129725100543,157
North KestevenEagle, Swinderby and Witham St Hughs4,140Sleaford2,053780124654300423,107
North KestevenHeckington Rural4,269Boston and Skegness2,0237521122073900473,180
North KestevenHeighington and Washingborough5,417Sleaford2,6648421932245900284,010
North KestevenKirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme1,875Boston and Skegness92233846291600181,369
North KestevenLeasingham and Rauceby1,736Sleaford83129651281800201,244
North KestevenMetheringham4,142Sleaford2,154803127704400393,237
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Forum1,809Lincoln and North Hykeham90339883372400211,466
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Memorial2,195Lincoln and North Hykeham93342286382600241,529
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Mill3,702Lincoln and North Hykeham1,619660117573800422,533
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Moor1,854Lincoln and North Hykeham79439679356200201,386
North KestevenNorth Hykeham Witham1,919Lincoln and North Hykeham92633360322000171,388
North KestevenOsbournby1,861Sleaford96430839271600181,372
North KestevenRuskington4,329Sleaford2,199855114764000493,333
North KestevenSleaford Castle1,789Sleaford88152377432700281,579
North KestevenSleaford Holdingham1,929Sleaford91453677442600301,627
North KestevenSleaford Navigation1,817Sleaford89856482472600261,643
North KestevenSleaford Quarrington and Mareham5,296Sleaford2,5851,1511961066100614,160
North KestevenSleaford Westholme1,793Sleaford79952073432500291,489
North KestevenWaddington West1,887Lincoln and North Hykeham89537170100210091,466
South KestevenBelvoir2,639Sleaford1,31144059332300131,879
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield177Grantham and Stamford7438692002131
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's228Grantham and Stamford94638113001180
South KestevenLoveden Heath2,057Sleaford1,01238258332100281,534
South KestevenPeascliffe and Ridgeway3,889Sleaford1,954712116644100382,925
South KestevenViking3,988Sleaford1,925672119604200382,856
 Total86,627 42,24417,0082,7221,9519700089965,794

The full details of these calculations are given on the Sleaford and North Hykeham seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Grantham and Stamford

The new seat of Grantham and Stamford is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Grantham and Stamford
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		NAT
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
South KestevenAveland2,008Grantham and Stamford1,0382783520801001,389
South KestevenBelmont3,680Grantham and Stamford1,613730118472301502,546
South KestevenBourne Austerby3,986Grantham and Stamford1,961542139502604202,760
South KestevenBourne East3,192Grantham and Stamford1,441538111821901802,209
South KestevenBourne West4,132Grantham and Stamford1,8336391771202606502,860
South KestevenCasewick3,977Grantham and Stamford2,087439106432005702,752
South KestevenCastle1,852Grantham and Stamford8962755142100901,283
South KestevenDole Wood1,923Grantham and Stamford98222459211103401,331
South KestevenGlen1,908Grantham and Stamford99420950441001401,321
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield3,180Grantham and Stamford1,394534129882003502,200
South KestevenGrantham Arnoldfield180Sleaford and North Hykeham7438692002131
South KestevenGrantham Barrowby Gate3,864Grantham and Stamford1,5207481611157605502,675
South KestevenGrantham Earlesfield4,881Grantham and Stamford1,3141,7241401293004303,380
South KestevenGrantham Harrowby3,880Grantham and Stamford1,3411,086134542504602,686
South KestevenGrantham Springfield3,524Grantham and Stamford1,299844115976601902,440
South KestevenGrantham St Vincent's5,646Grantham and Stamford1,9401,41420815610708303,908
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's3,934Grantham and Stamford1,5988311411023002202,724
South KestevenGrantham St Wulfram's248Sleaford and North Hykeham94638113001180
South KestevenIsaac Newton3,661Grantham and Stamford1,82448994901801902,534
South KestevenLincrest1,960Grantham and Stamford9902893719901201,356
South KestevenMorton1,883Grantham and Stamford9252595625902901,303
South KestevenStamford All Saints3,824Grantham and Stamford1,6236661551132606302,646
South KestevenStamford St George's3,105Grantham and Stamford1,167646142896603902,149
South KestevenStamford St John's4,004Grantham and Stamford1,8845471581102504702,771
South KestevenStamford St Mary's4,487Grantham and Stamford1,8006464375110606603,106
South KestevenToller2,060Grantham and Stamford99324814225100801,426
 Total80,979 34,62514,9463,1091,7527810850356,066

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Grantham and Stamford. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

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